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DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/20 10:56
Soybean Futures are Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Futures Lower
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 5
to 7 cents higher; wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 5
to 7 cents higher; wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is
firmer with the S&P 350 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 points lower.
Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude off .20 and
natural gas off .07. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with
gold up 2.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with mixed spread action as we
bounce back off the early risk-off trade with mixed spread action so far.
Ethanol margins will continue to work sideways with support from corn values
short term while unleaded has faded back towards the lower end of the range
crimping some of the anticipated spring blender gains short term with signs of
improving travel demand. Crop development in Brazil will be watched closer as
double-crop planting winds up with the forecast drying a little to help for now
with potential concerns if it shows the dry season starting while Argentina
limps toward the finish line. Weekly export inspections improved at 1.189
million metric tons (mmt). Basis has remains flat to firmer. On the May chart,
support is the lower Bollinger Band back below the market at $6.01, and the
20-day moving average just above the market at $6.36.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents higher with spread action leading us back
from early weakness. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 40 to 50 points
higher with crush margins trying to sustain the recent boost from oil. The
daily export wire has been quiet as we get deeper into Brazil's prime export
season with weekly export inspections OK seasonally at 716,618 metric tons
(mt). Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to extend the strong
recent movement with harvest moving along with drier weather short term likely
to help with Argentina to catch some isolated moisture as the growing season
winds down. New crop continues to see losses versus corn as the time to bid for
acres grows short. Basis remains mostly sideways to soft near term. May chart
resistance is at the $15.06 20-day moving average, which we are solidly below
with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.44 as further resistance, and the Lower
Bollinger Band at $14.66, which we tested overnight before bouncing.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade firming back a
bit from early weakness with outside markets and euro values remain under
pressure. The KC wheat areas look to remain on the shorter end of moisture over
the next couple of weeks with short-term cold weather passing with SRW seeing
moisture, with the Northern Plains mixed ahead of planting. World wheat weather
remains mixed short term with India harvest starting in some areas with exports
likely to be delayed until later. Matif wheat values are weaker again with the
grain corridor extending for now. Weekly export inspections were improved
slightly at 374,224 mo. On the chart, KC May has the 20-day moving average at
support at $8.21 that we pushed above to close last week, with the Upper
Bollinger Band well above the market at $8.74.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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