DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/20 10:53
Soybeans Sinking Midday Monday
Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 17 to 19 cents lower and wheat is 5
to 11 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 540 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 0.05 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are
weaker with crude down $0.80. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals
are firmer with gold up $14.00.
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Monday with broad commodity
weakness to start the week amid harvest progress and unsettled outside markets
with issues regarding a large property developer in China. Ethanol margins will
continue to struggle with natural gas and corn costs offsetting the rise in
unleaded values and driving demand still tepid. South America will continue
with early full season corn planting with little weather concerns there so far.
Corn basis will likely continue to drift lower into harvest with some isolated
areas of strength that should push to above-average pace with the higher temps
near term and some rains in the western belt. Weekly crop progress should show
steady conditions with harvest progress just above average along with maturity
remaining above average, with export inspections improving slightly to 403,104
metric tons. On the December contract, we have support at the fresh low at
$4.97 while resistance is the 20-day at $5.28.
Soybeans are 17 to 19 cents lower at midday with trade falling back to the
lower end of the range with harvest progress, demand concerns from Asia and
little bullish action from South America to start the week. Meal is $1.00 to
$2.00 lower and oil is 0.95 cent to 1.05 cents lower. Warmer weather should
continue to push the crop towards maturity with harvest ramping up this week
and weekly crop progress expected to show above-average maturity, and steady
conditions with export inspections improving slightly to 275,193 metric tons.
Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. Trade will watch South
American weather, but widespread planting won't come until the end of the
month, depending on weather with the short-term forecast not bringing anything
to excite the market. On the November soybean chart, resistance at the 20-day
at $12.95 with support at the recent low at $12.65.
Wheat trade is 5 to 11 cents lower at midday with spillover from row crops
and outside markets to start the week providing headwinds, but trade has
battled back from early losses. The dollar pushed back over 93 points, carrying
action back to the summer highs on flight to safety action. KC is at a 2-cent
premium to Chicago with weaker action so far, with Minneapolis at a 192-cent
premium on the December staying flat as well. Weekly crop progress is expected
to show winter wheat planting just ahead of average with export inspections in
the 400,000 to 600,000 metric ton range. Weather in the Plains looks dry short
term as planting gets going with little fresh news on Southern Hemisphere
weather so far. KC December on the chart has support at the 20-day at $7.10,
which we are below at midday with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $7.36.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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