DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/21 10:58
Grains, Soybeans Mostly Higher at Midday
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher up front, 5 to 6 cents lower on new
crop; soybeans are 15 to 19 higher up front, 2 to 3 higher on new crop; and
wheat is flat to 8 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 510. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 50 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude
up 1.10. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $17.
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher up front with new crop 5 to 6 cents
lower. Trade is seeing selling after rains of mixed intensity and quantity
worked across the Corn Belt early on, before firming back from 25 cents lower
overnight trade. Ethanol margins are seeing support from corn values holding
the lower end of the range with policy concerns limiting upside while demand
remains solid short term. Brazil weather looks mostly unchanged short term as
the crop advances towards harvest with some late rain. U.S. weather should be
watched for follow-up rains and temps into July. Corn basis should remain flat
to weaker near term with more attention going to new crop. Weekly export
inspections were in line with recent weeks at 1.481 million bushels (mb), with
crop conditions expected steady to slightly lower and overall progress slightly
ahead of average. On the July contract, trade is back below the 20-day at $6.65
with another test possible later in the session; the lower Bollinger band at
6.22 as support.
Soybean futures are 15 to 19 cents higher up front, with new crop 2 to 3
cents higher. Very volatile trade is continuing as spreads remains strong and
product values turned higher at midday. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil
is 100 to 130 points higher. The weather pattern should allow for better
short-term development with rains needed to boost double-crop areas during
planting as wheat comes off. Weekly export inspections remained in line with
recent weeks at 6.4 mb, with conditions steady to lower and planting and
emergence fading with double-crop planting slowed by the slow wheat harvest.
South America should continue to see shipping progress short term, with U.S.
basis soft with processors and exporters firming bids in spots after the
washout. On the July soybean chart support is $13.23 1/2 low from Thursday,
with $14.00 the first level of resistance, which we are above at midday; the
$14.50 area that was pre-washout support is the next round up.
Wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher with Chicago and Minneapolis taking
the lead at midday; KC is the weak leg of the spreads amid harvest pressure.
The dollar is softer, just below 92 on the index, marking the highest levels
since March. Warmer weather this week should help bring winter wheat along
after the slowdown last week with harvest likely to expand significantly this
week. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well
with little fresh news on the front with Russia mostly OK for now. KC continues
at a 65-cent discount to Chicago, making new highs for the move; Minneapolis is
at a 102-cent premium. Weekly crop progress will likely show steady conditions
for spring and winter wheat, with harvest catching up towards average and
heading well ahead of average for spring wheat. Weekly export inspections
improved at 20.2 mb. KC July on the chart has resistance the 20-day at $6.22
with support at the lower Bollinger band at $5.88.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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